|Karin Ohlenforst: “many new countries are preparing to join the offshore wind revolution, and floating wind is a game-changing development that can add even more volume”.
Announcing details of a new business intelligence report from the Global Wind Energy Council, director of market intelligence Karin Ohlenforst said, “We are standing within reach of a truly global offshore wind industry.
“Based on government targets, auction results, and pipeline data we expect to see 190 GW of new capacity to be installed by 2030, but this does not represent the full potential of offshore wind.
“Many new countries are preparing to join the offshore wind revolution, while floating offshore wind represents a game-changing technological development that can add even more volumes in the years to come.”
GWEC’s market intelligence report shows that the offshore wind sector has grown 21% on average each year since 2013, taking the total to 23 GW installed capacity globally.
GWEC sees potential for the sector to install additional capacity of 200GW by 2030 under its upside scenario and 190 GW of capacity under business-as-usual (BAU) scenario.
The Asian offshore market – including China – is expected to become the largest offshore region globally
GWEC global offshore wind task force chair Alastair Dutton said, “The industry is continuing to make significant strides on cost-competitiveness, with an average levelised cost of energy of US$50/MWh within reach.
“This achievement increases the attractiveness of offshore wind in mature markets where a number of governments are discussing long-term climate targets that, if they are to be achieved, must seriously consider the contribution large-scale offshore wind can make.
“New offshore markets represent significant potential and if industry and governments can work together, as we have seen recently in the case of Taiwan, we can build the necessary policy frameworks at greater speed to ensure growth can be achieved sooner than later.”
GWEC’s analysis includes a BAU scenario, which does not incorporate further technical development or further opportunities for offshore wind, and an upside scenario which captures the additional potential.
The BAU scenario expects double-digit growth for the global offshore market based on current policies and expected auctions and tenders. This scenario makes annual installations of 15 to 20 GW after 2025 realistic based on growth in China and other Asian markets, amounting to 165 GW of new installed capacity globally between now and 2030. This would bring the total installed capacity to nearly 190 GW.
The upside scenario captures additional potential such as the advancement of floating technology, increased cost-competitiveness and therefore greater volume in mature markets, as well as the opening up of new offshore markets. Based on this scenario, a more positive outlook of over 200 GW new installed capacity between now and 2030 is possible, totalling approximately 210 GW installed capacity.
In Europe, total installed capacity under the BAU scenario is expected to be 78 GW by 2030. The Asian offshore market including China is expected to become the largest region globally with key growth markets including Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan, India and South Korea. Total installed capacity for the region under the BAU scenario is 100 GW by 2030.
First installation of large-scale projects in the US is expected between 2021 and 2023, bringing total installations to 2 GW by 2025, with potential for 10 GW of installations towards 2030 with increasing experience and maturing of the local supply chain.